Background Information

Past surveys of state transportation agencies have revealed that the risk register is the most popular tool for prioritizing risks. However, risk registers, and other tools such as heat maps, do not enable an economic analysis of alternative adaptation strategies that might decrease the likelihood or consequence of future risk events. The Pipeline Hazardous Materials and Safety Administration (PHMSA) has asserted that quantitative models provide greater insights into risk and greater support for decision making, but transportation agencies have been reluctant to adopt quantitative models and probabilistic modeling to assess potential consequences associated with risk events. Common barriers include the perceived complexity of the analysis, the lack of trained personnel, and the lack of reliable data.

To help eliminate these barriers, guidance is needed to demonstrate the use of mixed-method research model and quantitative modeling techniques and data in planning investments leading to a more resilient transportation system. Several models that potentially apply including qualitative models, relative assessment/index models, quantitative system and probabilistic models. This project description emerged in part from the roadmap developed under NCHRP Project 23-09, which focuses on developing the scoping study and roadmap to develop an all-hazards risk and resilience model for highway assets.

Literature Search Summary

In addition to NCHRP Project 23-09, other relevant research in this area includes:

• A Guide for Program-Level Risk Management Performance Metrics (NCHRP 23-35 pending), National Cooperative Highway Research Board, Project has not been awarded.
• Incorporating Resilience Concepts and Strategies in Transportation Planning (NCHRP 08-129), National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 2022.
• Integrating Effective Transportation Performance, Risk and Asset Management Practices (NCHRP 08-115), National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 2021.
• Risk Assessment Techniques for Transportation Asset Management (NCHRP 08-118), National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 2021.
• Development of a Risk Management Strategic Plan and Research Roadmap (NCHRP 20-123(04)),National Cooperative Highway Research Board, 2021.
• Consistency Review of Methodologies for Quantitative Risk Assessment, U.S. Department of Transportation, October 26, 2020.
• Implementing NCHRP Report 806: Guide to Cross-Asset Resource Allocation and the Impact on Transportation System Performance, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 2018.
• Managing Risk Across the Enterprise (NCHRP 08-93), National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 2016.
• A Systematic Approach to Safety – Using Risk to Drive Action, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2014.
• Guide to Integrated Risk Management, Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat, 2014.
• Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2012.
• Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative, The National Academies Press, 2012.
• Assessing Criticality in Transportation Adaptation Planning, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2011.
• Executive Strategies for Risk Management by State Departments of Transportation (NCHRP 20-24(74)), National Cooperative Research Board, 2011
• Victorian Government Risk Management Framework, Secretary Department of Treasury and Finance, 2011.
• All Hazards Risk and Resilience, Prioritizing Critical Infrastructure Using the RAMCAP Approach, American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, 2009
• Guidebook on Risk Analysis Tools and Management Practices to Control Transportation Project Costs (NCHRP 08-60), National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 2009.
• Port Risk Management and Insurance Guidebook, U.S. Department of Transportation Office of Ports and Domestic Shipping, 1998.

Objectives

This research will develop guidance and an enterprise risk model framework-driven process for transportation agency leadership to decide the best course of action in addressing short and long-term enterprise-level risks. This will lead to improvements in the practice of enterprise risk management through right-sizing investments in a wide array of risk mitigation strategies to avoid much higher costs tomorrow. Efforts include:

• Investigate both quantitative and mixed-method research models for estimating vulnerability, likelihood, and both direct/indirect consequences associated with a variety of risks.
• Document the costs to, and assemble a representative catalog of data and information to support the most promising models.
• Develop a methodology for evaluating the potential impacts of risk events and the benefits associated with possible mitigation strategies.
• Demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to multiple planning topic spaces, such as emerging technologies, resilience, equity, and workforce, over a short and long-term investment planning cycle.
• Develop draft problem statement developments for post-research funding mechanisms such as NCHRP 20-123, NCHRP 20-44 and promote the findings through CEO workshops.

Keywords/Terms

Risk, Enterprise Risk Management, Financial Planning

Link to 2021-2026 AASHTO Strategic Plan

The 2021-2026 AASHTO Strategic Plan includes a goal related to safety, mobility, and access for everyone. Within that goal are objectives to improve asset performance and strengthen resiliency. This research will develop the framework to accomplish these objectives through more impactful investment decisions that reduce the likelihood or impact of potential risks.

Urgency and Potential Benefits

As transportation agencies face wildfires, flooding, and other forms of destruction to the transportation system with more regularity and intensity, there is an increased urgency for methodologies that support modeling future uncertainties and evaluating when risks reach the point that investments in mitigation strategies are warranted to offset the potential for huge economic and social impacts. The guidance developed through this research will lead to the ability for transportation agencies to better analyze potential risks, as actuaries do regularly to support the insurance industry. The results will lead to a more resilient transportation system with fewer disruptions.

Implementation Considerations

• Communication and Implementation Funding: $150,000 to offer CEO workshops and peer exchanges to support implementation.
• Communication and Implementation Period: 18 months following completion of the research.

Author(s)

Others Supporting Problem Statement

Potential Panel Members

Person Submitting Statement

Notes